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Pentagon review would target war and assassination bets
The amendment would make the Defense secretary consult the Commodity Futures Trading Commission within 180 days on how to define violent-event contracts and what public-interest concerns they raise.
Prediction markets that let people bet on what happens next in war, terrorism or assassination could end up under a sharper federal lens. In Washington, a Senate amendment would require the Secretary of Defense to consult with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, within 180 days after enactment on a proposed rule covering those markets.
The review would focus on how to define war, terrorism and assassination, and on the factors that determine when an event contract crosses into those subjects.
Drawing the line around violent bets
The amendment also asks regulators to look at the public-interest concerns those contracts raise. That matters because prediction markets depend on clear boundaries, and contracts tied to violent events can quickly run into questions about whether they belong on regulated exchanges at all.
The provision does not set the limits itself. It pushes the Pentagon and the CFTC to work through the rules first, which could shape how the federal government treats a fast-growing corner of financial speculation.