Says Elections
CFTC says elections are not gaming in prediction markets
The proposal would use a public-interest test to screen event contracts before they trade on regulated venues. It also puts legislative votes, laws and political appointments outside the gaming category.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is proposing a new way to judge event contracts in prediction markets. The draft says political elections are not gaming, and it extends that carveout to legislative votes, laws and political appointments.
- The CFTC would use a public-interest test for event contracts.
- Contracts found contrary to the public interest could be blocked before trading.
- Political elections are not treated as gaming in the proposal.
- Legislative votes, laws and appointments are also included in the political carveout.
- The rule would affect prediction markets and the venues that list or clear them.
A federal proposal from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, would give regulators a clearer way to decide when an event contract should be blocked from a regulated market before trading starts. The rule would affect prediction markets, the market type built around contracts tied to future events.
A public-interest screen
At the center of the draft is a public-interest test. The CFTC would lay out factors it could use to decide whether a contract is contrary to the public interest. If it makes that finding, the contract could be kept off a CFTC-registered venue and barred from being listed or cleared there.
Political outcomes are treated differently
The proposal draws a clear line around politics. It says political elections are not gaming. It also treats results of political elections and outcomes or occurrences of political activity, including legislative votes, enactments of laws and appointments to political offices, as outside that gaming category.
What this means for market design
For exchanges, clearing venues and contract designers, the practical issue is whether a contract can make it through the new screening process at all. The draft does not just change labels. It gives the commission a direct tool to decide which contracts can reach a regulated market and which cannot.